Why Sarah Palin Won't Be President in 2012

Published in The Catalyst

The Sarah Palin buzz is dying and it’s dying quickly. Her last book was expected to explode but sold so poorly that its publisher had to cancel a second print run. In-fact, not only did her book debut far behind George W. Bush’s debut memoir, but it sold nearly 1.5 million copies less than her first. Palin, who I’m sure was well aware that her reality TV show’s had plummeted in ratings by a catastrophic 40%, was not having a good week. Acting just like a president does when times are tough, she fled the country in a surprise trip to Haiti for charity work.   

To be fair, I acknowledge the charge that I am being tremendously, even ignorantly premature in my prediction that Palin can’t become the commander in chief. And I realize that like sports, in politics, anything can happen.  But please don’t misunderstand how certain I am- I see almost no plausible way this nation can put the far-right, dangerously pro-war Sarah Palin in the White House. Anything can happen- yes, millions of people could suddenly move to Alabama.  I don’t mean that Sarah Palin is not electable on the national level- up against Barack Obama’s extremely venerable presidency- I mean she will never get that far. As I see it, Alabama is more likely to get that population surge than Sarah Palin is to become the nominee on the Republican ticket, and I have a pretty good record as far as election predictions go.  Allow me to provide specifics- here are the top 3 reasons Sarah’s got no chance: 

Lack of Appeal: George Bush ran on a fairly moderate agenda in 2000, and milked 9/11 for a smooth victory over John Kerry’s disorganized and mismanaged campaign team in 2004. Sarah Palin’s appeal is to an incredibly loud but incredibly miniscule far more right contingent made up almost entirely of white people. She cannot appeal to most women with her radically anti-Choice and anti-birth control politics, nor can she pull in moderates with her frightening obsessions with hunting, oil drilling and war (not to mention the African-American or Latino vote). According to a CBS poll, only 4% of Democrats have a positive view of Palin.

In a tell-all 25-minute interview on Fox News Sunday on February 7^th, Sarah Palin exposed how out of touch she was with U.S foreign policy interests and the opinions of the American public when she bluntly replied to a question of how president Obama could win re-election with “say he decided to declare war on Iran or decide to really come out and do whatever he could to support Israel–which I would like him to do. That changes the dynamics of what we can assume will happen between now and three years. Because I think if the election were today, Obama would not be elected” going on to say “If he did, things would dramatically change- if he decided to toughen up and do all that he can to secure our nation and secure our allies- I think people would shift their thinking a bit.” So the former governor would “like” America to wage war on Iran or target any threat to Israel- simply to sway public opinion? Would she “like” to invade North Korea, wage war against Palestine or nuke Afghanistan too? Ms. Palin’s idea of public opinion is a contrived, unaware and absurd disgrace.  

Lack of Experience: In Bush staffer Matt Latimer’s book released last year, George W. Bush was quoted as saying “This woman is being put into a position she is not even remotely prepared for. She hasn't spent one day on the national level. Neither has her family”. According to the CBS News Poll, 48% of Republicans have a neutral or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin, only 52% claiming they thought of her favorably. 45% of Republicans believe she is unqualified for the presidency.

No Longer Alaska’s Sweetheart: Alaska, Palin’s stronghold of support in 2008, spoke up for her when she became nationally scrutinized as the GOP’s candidate vice president, defending her against visceral, often sexist attacks from liberals and the media. Many citizens and prominent Alaska politicians expressed their satisfaction with her job as Governor, and the rest of the country listened as the people of the ‘Last Frontier’ cited her spending cuts and reigning in of oil companies as honorable do-good leadership. But, as the largest state in America became less and less supportive of Palin’s increasingly far-right politics, she quit her governorship to go on a nationwide book tour and star in a reality TV show. This slap in the face to a public who had been so good to her may very well come back to bite her in 2012. You may be thinking- Alaska is so isolated and has about a 5^th of Denver’s metropolitan area’s population, but Palin’s loudest insurgency of support may be transformed into a very vocal dissidence come its chance in 2012. Alaska was once like family to Sarah Palin, and now much of it is bitter and relentlessly critical of what many see as a political sell-out. Lyda Green, the Republican president of the Alaska state senate got plenty of web attention when she asked “How can she be prepared to be president if she can’t even finish the job as governor?” In an interview with ABC, conservative columnist George Will said Sarah was abandoning her “contract with [the people of Alaska] to serve out her term”, claiming he had “no idea what she was thinking” by “freeing herself up to the nation” by becoming “a quitter”. Sarah Palin’s sway in Alaska was proven dead after the candidate she endorsed for Senate lost to a moderate with a hard name to spell (Lisa Murkowski) by way of write-in ballot.

President Obama’s fate may not be any better come 2012. It may not take a double dip recession, bloody and unpopular war or surprise family scandal to solidify this reality. The fact is, Obama has lost his base. With major policy shift after policy shift to the right, the president is becoming very Bush-like not only on immigration and education, but now taxes. After he vowed to add $900 billion to the deficit in order renew Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthy last week, The New York Times ran a editorial claiming Obama’s presidency was “messy, combustible and painful”. Capitol Hill Blue affirmed “Obama completes his sell out”, MSNBC’s Kieth Olberman declared Obama had “betrayed the American people” and “bowed to the rich”. In the comedy world, Jon Stewart claimed on The Daily Show that the president’s move to cut the debt by increasing spending and prolonging tax cuts was the equivalent of trying to lose weight with “laziness and bacon”.

Although some are questioning whether he will prolong his acquisition of grey hairs with a bid for 4 more years come election season, his moves to the right signify an attempt to appeal to Republicans and thus try to win over swing voters. So, as I express my sureness that Sarah Palin won’t be the Republican nominee in 2012, I foresee Obama battling in a close contest against a Republican like Mike Huckabee or Chris Christie. It may take another fourteen-or-so months before I can start predicting the results of that election.